Beware Cycle Global Economic Crisis

Macroeconomic expert at Harvard University, Jefffrey Frankel, macro economics would predict natural cycles of global economic crisis in 2012. He spoke in the forum "Coping With Asia's in the Multi-speed Global Economy" held the IMF, Bank Indonesia, and
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Nusa Dua, Bali (ANTARA News) - The macro economist from Harvard University, Jeffrey Frankel, reminiscent of the possibility of global economic crisis cycle every 15 years.

"The implications of this crisis mainly hit the markets grow in 2012," he said during a talk on "Coping With Asia` s Large capital inflows In a Multi-speed Global Economy "in Nusa Dua, Bali, on Friday.

Forum of academics and founder of the state and central bank policies in the Asia-Pacific region was initiated by the International Monetary Fund, Bank Indonesia, and BPKM.

Frankel study on the global economic crisis due to international capital flows occur three times, first in 1975-1981 when the "gift" of world oil production led to the worldwide financial crisis. Product finally occurred in 1982 led to the "lost generation" in Latin America in 1982-1989.

The second cycle occurs in the blast growing markets in 1990-1996. Indonesia and Thailand suffered a big shock due to political and economic crisis which is also due to policies of the IMF on how to handle Indonesia's foreign debt burden.

In this second cycle, Latin American countries, namely Brazil and Argentina, together with Turkey and Russia also suffered due to continued monetary crisis in 1998-2002.

The last one in 2003-2008 which to delay the global financial crisis after the period, namely in 2008-2009. This third cycle may be led to the birth of the fourth cycle in 2010-2011.

"But times change. Today many developing countries have surpassed developed economies. In the 2008-2009 recession, China, Indonesia, India still has good economic growth rates, as well as their fiscal positions," he said.

Moreover, the position of private savings fund grow market countries are also growing steadily enhanced with fiscal policy with more mengeyampingkan prosiklik mechanism.

As a result, the credit rating market countries that grow better. Singapore, China, South Korea, Malaysia, and India has ranked in the top Belgium, Japan, Portugal, Ireland, and Greece.

The problem that then arises due to cyclical and capital movements, he said, is how central banks manage it. "Whether through capital controls, central bank intervention, or sterilization. As for the government of each country is through fiscal policy or whether agricultural commodities," he said.

Especially for central banks, capital controls can be applied in case of price penalty policies more moderate than the mere prohibition. "It would be better if it was designed to change the composition of capital inflows in addition to short-term interests, or bank loans," he said.

Indonesia in the Global Economic Crisis Whirls

WHEN is the global economy was sinking. Prolonged political crisis in the Middle East that begins in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, and Libya with bubbling in campurnya helped coalition forces, making global oil prices worse off. Saturday, March 26 yesterday, world oil prices recorded USD105, 40 per barrel. Even predictable, that price will still be an increase in the level of USD200 per barrel.

Of course, the world oil price increase will affect the economy of Indonesia. If the government does not reduce fuel subsidies (fuel), then the burden of state budget revenue and expenditure (budget) will be more swollen. However, Chief Economiest Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI), Ryan Irianto in Customer Gathering Area BNI Makassar recently judging, events in the Middle East only further impact.

The most threatening call Ryan is the impact of the earthquake and tsunami in Japan. Because the state was nicknamed Affairs of the Rising Sun is directly related to the Indonesian economy. Especially with the explosion of a nuclear reactor in Fukushima Prefecture, will cause energy "Asian Tigers" were dropped. World Bank Chief Economist for Asia Pacific region Vikram Nehru in Washington explained, if the growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) slowed from 0.25 to 0.5 percent of Japan, exports from Asia Pacific countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines will slow down more than 1, 5 percent.

Japan is the third major export destination countries of Indonesia, particularly fishery products. Based on the data presented Chairman of the Association of Fishery Products Processing and Marketing Indonesia (AP5I), Thomas said, fishery product exports to Japan during the period January-September 2010 worth approximately USD16, 5 million. Based on data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), total Indonesian non-oil exports to Japan during 2010 amounted to USD16, 496 billion.

How to Sulawesi? Head of Foreign Trade Department of Industry and Trade of South Sulawesi, Habib Ahmad said the total exports to Japan, South Sulawesi in 2010 USD1, 315 billion. Of the total exports, the contribution of nickel by 67 percent. In 2010, total exports of nickel USD1, 276 billion, while 2009 only USD760 million.

Other exports to Japan which included a large fresh fish in 2010 was $ 4, 96 million, shrimp USD19, 7 million, flying fish eggs $ 4, 5 million. Achmad hoped, for the short term the U.S. market, Singapore, Malaysia also can offset a decline in export value to the Land of the Rising Sun. Moreover, economic growth in South Sulawesi more driven by agriculture and fishery sectors.

Data Department of Marine and Fisheries of South Sulawesi, South Sulawesi fishery exports in 2010 reached 54,711.3 tons, worth USD156.645, 4 million. Of 4896 tons of frozen shrimp or equivalent USD52.760, 4 million, amounting to 41,588 tons of sea grass or USD47.445, 3 million. Tuna, skipjack and tuna at 2978.3 tonnes or USD20.650 million, and other fish, amounting to 5249 tons or equivalent USD35.789, 7 million. However, the Malaysian market, the U.S. and China, seems to be an alternative export of South Sulawesi. Data Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) said South Sulawesi, in January 2011 exports to Japan reached only $ 4, 817 million. Others to Malaysia USD15, 436 million, U.S. $ 8, 065 million, and China USD9, 697 million, 2.742 million Singapore, the Netherlands USD0, 759 million, Germany $ 3, 081 million, Vietnam USD1, 838 million, and South Korea $ 1, 762 million

CURRENCY OF ISLAM

Gold and Silver is the second most suitable commodities to be used to back currency. Reuse Dinar and Dirham As Currency Islam course will impact the thinking and lifestyle of Muslims in these last days.

Dinar and Dirham feqah known as sharia currency or coins syarikah (see a) Muqadimah, Ibn Khaldun). Islamic coins the term is specific to the dinar & dirham only and should not be used for other coins. While other coins are all known as the coin is not syarii (Ibn Khaldun).

The term Alternative Currency or currency options the currency does not apply to the sharia or Islamic coins because the term 'Islamic coins' is specifically for the Dinar & Dirham only and is not an alternative to other currencies is not syarii. The two coins that stand alone with no alternative.

In the history of Islamic coins, never became the legal tender currency. In the practice of the early Muslim community, not only currency used sharia as an intermediary in exchange for payment. Barley, dates and salt are also used as a medium of exchange for payment. Therefore, there is no exclusive rights granted to Islamic coins.

During the reign of Saidina Ummar, the pattern of Islamic currency has been carved with the name of Allah, and some of the verses of the Qur'an. The weight of a dinar currency has been set to equal the current size of 4.25 grams.

Elimination of the currency system of Islam has been much damage to mankind, such as poverty, environmental degradation, production and distribution monopoly. The financial system is now bringing a lot of problems such as unemployment, crime, immoral & moral decline.

Now, the gold dinar was back, and many Muslims and non-Muslims from all over the world call for the gold dinar was restored.
Gold Dinar is a gold-based currency is intended to be used throughout the world particularly in Islamic countries. The term was chosen because it is based on Islamic currency used in the country Madinah al-Munawwarah at the time of the Prophet Muhammad, the dinar.
CURRENCY OF ISLAM
Posted on October 28, 2010 by admin

Gold and Silver is the second most suitable commodities to be used to back currency. Reuse Dinar and Dirham As Currency Islam course will impact the thinking and lifestyle of Muslims in these last days.

Dinar and Dirham feqah known as sharia currency or coins syarikah (see a) Muqadimah, Ibn Khaldun). Islamic coins the term is specific to the dinar & dirham only and should not be used for other coins. While other coins are all known as the coin is not syarii (Ibn Khaldun).

The term Alternative Currency or currency options the currency does not apply to the sharia or Islamic coins because the term 'Islamic coins' is specifically for the Dinar & Dirham only and is not an alternative to other currencies is not syarii. The two coins that stand alone with no alternative.

In the history of Islamic coins, never became the legal tender currency. In the practice of the early Muslim community, not only currency used sharia as an intermediary in exchange for payment. Barley, dates and salt are also used as a medium of exchange for payment. Therefore, there is no exclusive rights granted to Islamic coins.

During the reign of Saidina Ummar, the pattern of Islamic currency has been carved with the name of Allah, and some of the verses of the Qur'an. The weight of a dinar currency has been set to equal the current size of 4.25 grams.

Elimination of the currency system of Islam has been much damage to mankind, such as poverty, environmental degradation, production and distribution monopoly. The financial system is now bringing a lot of problems such as unemployment, crime, immoral & moral decline.

Now, the gold dinar was back, and many Muslims and non-Muslims from all over the world call for the gold dinar was restored.
Gold Dinar is a gold-based currency is intended to be used throughout the world particularly in Islamic countries. The term was chosen because it is based on Islamic currency used in the country Madinah al-Munawwarah at the time of the Prophet Muhammad, the dinar.

Umar Ibrahim Vadillo is advisory Dinar Emas Kelantan

Umar Ibrahim Vadillo is advisory Dinar Emas Kelantan. He is a person who sees the use of gold dinar as a solution to the global economic crisis. He has worked hard to create an economic climate that the gold dinar against a currency that is supposed to be Muslims. In fact, he has lobbied Tun Mahathir after the country's currency crisis in lye in 1997 to switch to using the gold dinar. Argument, the gold dinar currency will not only serve as the main method of payment as there is more than one billion Muslims in this world but the position of a country's economy will be more secure because of the gold dinar is a commodity that has price stability.

On August 18, 1991, he issued a fatwa loudly that paper money is illegal. Fatwa concluded that paper money is a form of debt (a promise that paid by the party out) and therefore can not be used as a means of payment. This is consistent with the definition of Imam Malik which defines money as "no generally accepted komodititi used as a means of exchange." Therefore, people have the freedom to choose any value as a commodity currency and the currency is not forced to value it.

History through carefully, the gold dinar has become the standard currency of the world, for thousands of years, until it was replaced on the dollar bills only in the early 1970's.

Dinar comes from the Latin word denarius, which is the currency used by the Roman Empire made of silver metal. It is used in the year 211 BC in which a silver denarius weight off - about 4.5 grams.

From the word denarius this, there is a variety of other currencies such as the denier (the silver currency of France), Denaro (silver currency Italy), Dinar (Islamic gold currency), Dinero (Spanish silver currency) and Dinheiro (Silver Portuguese currency) .

At the end of the Roman Republic era, the currency of gold denarius was first used to be known as the denarius denarius aureus, which means gold. Since then, growth has been the gold currency change over the period in which the reign of Constantine the Great (306-377 AD) the old currency was exchanged for gold, the currency is lighter, known as Solidus who weighed 4.5 grams.

Solidus gold currency was used until the end of the Byzantine Empire and its use has spread throughout the Arabian Peninsula until the early days of Islam. From the time of starting the development of Islam, the use of currency gold dinar and silver dirham from the Persians have used the currency of any nation when it was in the transaction.

Only in the reign of the Caliph of the Caliphs Saiyidina-3 Ummar al-Khattab (13-23 migration / 633-644 AD), the use of currency dinar and dirham first controlled in terms of style and weight. Under the reign of Caliph Ummar, the pattern of Islamic currency has been carved with the name of Allah and some of the verses of the Qur'an. The weight of this Islamic currency has also been determined that the dinar currency must contain gold weighing 1 mithqal (which weighs 25.4 grams size at present). While the dirham currency, the weight was 2975 grams of silver (current size) in which if the value of the dinar is 7 tukarannya gold dinar is equivalent to 10 dirhams of silver.

The importance of gold dinar clearly recorded in the books of Ibn Khaldun, entitled, "al-Muqaddimah." In the book, posted to the revelation of God Almighty enter the dinar and dirham, and this had a lot to do with the law, such as zakat, marriage, and hudud. That is why in God's revelation s.w.t. has clearly stated that it would remain about the size of the charity and using the dinar and dirham not the other.

Islam emphasizes the pleasure of Allah s.w.t. in each of the commission and the work done for the pleasure of Allah swt will provide benefits to the world and the hereafter. The idea of ​​returning the gold dinar is not a small matter as it is directly or indirectly, involved the question of the social system, economic, political, and, of His blessings.

In fact, the weakness of Muslims marked the end of the world began to use gold dinar. Historically, Islamic rule under the Ottoman Caliphate in Istanbul, Turkey has dihelah with the progress and development. Borrowing money to build a paper from the European countries Turkey has made the debt and paper money system with the laptop has weakened the Caliphate.

Riba is hated God and Prophet This is explained in the Qur'an that says: "And if you do not (leave the rest of offense), then know that Allah and His Messenger will fight you. And if you repent (from taking usury), you shall have your principal, you are not wrong and does not (yet) being persecuted, "(Al Baqarah: 279).

There is no doubt, the world money system based on usury and paper money has led to a lot of damage, such as poverty, environmental degradation, production and distribution monopoly. This system also causes many problems such as unemployment, crime, vice and moral decline. The system is controlled by the banking institutions, democracy and political system is not responsible for contributing to the suffering people of the world.

Ibn Abbas r.a. of Ibn Ishaq and Ibn Basheer Asakir in Kanz al-Ummal heard Allah's Messenger said, which means: "Those who follow the Antichrist is the first 70.000 Jews ... and the release of the Antichrist is a sign of the practice of usury."

Now, the gold dinar was back, and many Muslims and non-Muslims from all over the world call for the gold dinar was restored. In the midst of economic turmoil that hit today, the gold dinar be seen sparkle to restore the financial system more reasonable and steady. Many have been aware of the worst financial system and the international community have begun to seek to return freedom to choose. If democracy is being hailed around the world to be practiced in all matters, why not given the freedom to choose the dinar as the currency?

The weakening of Exchange Rate is a Force Majeur

I'm sure nobody would ever have thought that within a period of ten years since the monetary crisis memorakmorandakan national economy, we will experience the same crisis again with different causes. In 1997, Indonesia is considered weak economic fundamentals so that when the crisis hit Southeast Asia, we immediately dropped. The rupiah weakened to the point of the most humiliating history of exchange rate our pride, Rp16000 per U.S. $ 1. Now, when our economic fundamentals "reported" good, it turns out that our economy, too, fall when bankruptcy hit the United States. The value of our currency slumped again to the level Rp12000 per U.S. $ 1. What can I say?

Force Majeur

The government should declare this weakening of the rupiah as force majeure due to such natural disasters, we also can not deny his arrival. Moreover, everyone knows that this is a global crisis where our country is powerless against it.

The contractors of government projects are always paid in the currency of rupiah to the dollar when they spend a lot of Americans who suffered losses from the weakening of the rupiah against the U.S. dollar. Three months ago, the rupiah against the U.S. dollar still in Rp9200 level of per U.S. $ 1. Today, when the rupiah reached Rp12000 per U.S. $ 1, the effect is like a natural disaster. The government contractor would not be able to bear the foreign exchange reached Rp3000's. I am sure many government contractors who experience it.

Government as an employer might say that contractors should have been calculating the risk of exchange rate fluctuations. However, the contractor which calculate cost of goods sold with Rp12000 exchange rate per U.S. $ 1 three months ago? On average, the contractor calculates the estimated foreign exchange amounting to Rp9500 per U.S. $ 1 on the U.S. dollar fluctuated in numbers Rp9200 - Rp9300. Which calculates the estimated exchange rate per U.S. $ 1 Rp10000 I do not think there is any.

Today, many companies do not dare to follow the tender for the procurement of goods (especially IT) by the government. The partner government does not dare to bear the losses due to foreign exchange because no one can guarantee that the exchange rate of rupiah against the U.S. dollar will continue or strengthen. That's when the new tender implemented. What about the tender has been announced or determined the winner in this two-weekly? We all know that the government tendering process starting from the announcement of the winner of the auction until the appointment of more than one month duration. A month ago, no one uses contractors estimates Rp12000 exchange rate per U.S. $ 1. Most likely, the highest estimates used are Rp10000 per U.S. $ 1.

Many government contractors who have a dilemma. At the time it has been set as the winner, they will be included on the blacklist (black list) when to resign. Meanwhile, if still do the job, they will lose big. In my opinion, the government through the Ministry of Finance should issue a policy regarding this. If in 2005 the government had issued a policy of price ekskalasi the face of this global economic catastrophe the government has not issued a similar policy.

When the dollar price range in Rp9200 - Rp9300, calculate the dollar price Rp10000 HPP was going to say distension (mark up) by the IG, BPK and KPK. The reason that no one can guarantee that prices will not increase the dollar will not be accepted by the IG, BPK and KPK. However, if the problem has happened like this, what will be said by the IG, CPC or KPK? Pity her, the government contractor. Currently, many government contractors who are working on jobs in government agencies that loss. Loss, not only declined but profit is completely loss.

The importance of the transaction with the amount in the domestic

Two times of economic crisis in decades should provide lessons for us all about the importance of dealing with the amount in the country. Government through the Ministry of Finance should issue a Regulation of the Minister of Finance regarding the obligation transactions in rupiah in the country. If Permenkeu not strong enough, the President should issue a presidential decree. If not enough, must be regulated in an Act. If a member of the House, I would propose that given the importance of making Rupiah as host in his own country and keep the business climate in the country to keep it running stable.

Global Financial Crisis 2008 Financial Crisis 1997 Differences With

1997 financial crisis hit most Asian countries. There is also affected by the crisis are: Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Philippines, South Korea. This crisis did not spread to other parts of the world.

This crisis exchange rate in the countries affected is due to make a nation and its foreign debt has fallen into poverty. Industry with imported raw materials went bankrupt. Happy story, the coffee farmers and exporters in Indonesia get nomplok fortune due to the depreciation of rupiah exchange rate.

The global financial crisis started from the United States 2008. Unlike the 1997 financial crisis affecting local 2008 crisis spread to almost all parts of the world. The stock fell. Multinational financial companies go bankrupt. Many companies in the U.S. would make the reduction of employees.

Financial crisis in the U.S., portfolio investors on the stock exchange to attract funding. As a result, the stock market fall, and now all currency exchange rates follow Asia fall. The rupiah exchange rate against the dollar had reached levels Rp12.000 per USD1.

Unfortunately, the collapse of the rupiah exchange rate is not accompanied by increased exports due to major export markets of Indonesia, namely the U.S., is bankrupt. In fact, the current agricultural commodity prices and mining fell. Falling coal prices, coffee prices fell. CPO prices to fall. Crude oil prices fell to a rate of USD60 per barrel-an.

The story above shows how the economy of Indonesia is not independent. In the 1997 crisis, others are not dragged over the world. Now, in 2008, due to the crisis in the United States, we must follow impacted. Therefore, let us move to develop the economic independence of Indonesia.

DOLLARS AND INSTABILITY ECONOMI WORLD

The world economy is increasingly uncertain. Rise and fall of the stock market, petrol and food the world out of control. Many people panicked by the crisis that hit, particularly pelabur2 the loss of millions of dollars in the blink of an eye, and thousands of lost jobs pkerja. Loss of jobs means loss of living.

OIL PRICES

Today is probably the world oil price below 40 USD per barrel. The same oil sold at more than 147 USD per barrel in April. Economic Pakar2 expect oil prices will continue down to 25 USD per barrel. Malaysians are welcome decline in oil that was announced by the government. At the same time there is still demand for the fuel in Malaysia reduced further.

In 2008, the various ups and downs of entry event occurs, like the formerly happy, but now everything is almost all upside.

The fate of rubber tappers

Rising oil prices lead to rising world market prices of rubber, and rubber tappers breath due to this increase, there is a taxi driver to stop driving and facing the rubber trees in order to make a living. What is any of a rubber tappers can collect revenue exceeding RM 1000 per week. It is much more convenient than driving a taxi during the day.

Dear and unfortunate fate of the rubber tappers to my countrymen, when the income earned each month so large rubber sales, there are buying cars, there are a enlargement of a house, there was, and there is. Finally, the present price of rubber dropped, car insurance did not manage to run out again. Saving money is gone, no income cukup2 eat. These plagues and disasters, when do not know about the financial knowledge to liberate themselves from the race of life. Their lives back to the original, hand to mouth, hand to the evening meal in the evening.

BAY ARAB COUNTRIES

When the price of oil reached 147 USD per barrel, luxury car sales declined throughout the world except in the Gulf Negara2. (Saudi Arabia, Emirate, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar). The result of the increase in global oil markets, they have many times more profit. Luxury cars bought seolah2 kanak2 games, with easy to purchase and convert a new car. Ego them in buying the car did not last long, is now a global market of oil plummeted, profits have declined ..

Gulf Negara2 now fill the stomach of oil sales to the global market. Logically, if negara2 is running out of oil, so he went back into poverty. Now, they can mendabik chest pointing ego because oil wells are still flowing, but I am not anti all the people of the Gulf, there is good and aware of the situation, but most of them are arrogant and like mendabik chest. time passed, the oil is decreasing, is certainly a more severe crisis in the future awaiting them.

NATION AND THE WORLD RICE MARKET

Following the increase in world oil demand in April this year, Thai White Rice prices increased by up to 1080 USD per tonne. As a result of the price of rice in Malaysia rose to 37 RM to 10 kg. People panic, the government was also similar to panic. Drastic measures have been taken by the government to provide subsidy of .80 cents per kilo of rice. The first time in history the government had to issue a subsidized rice to the people, if earlier, the subsidies granted in the form of fertilizer to farmers.

Today, Thai White Rice prices have dropped to 550 USD per metric ton. The situation stabilized for the moment, there is no guarantee that the stability hrga can survive forever.

IMPACT OF ECONOMIC CRISIS.

The global economic crisis saw the giant world syarikat2 mengulung down like Lehman Bro. Then followed by the announcement of losses by various companies such as AIG, Air Asia, the latest Honda recall of participation in Formula One.

A total of 250,000 Americans lost their jobs in the private sector. At the same time syarikat2 American motor giant General Motors and Ford asked for help from the White House. The amount requested is not small, but reaches 42 Billion USD. If aid is not given, the more people will lose their jobs.

Deputy Prime Minister of Malaysia, announced that the country will experience a reduction in revenues of 8 Billion RM next year as a result of this crisis, but many consider that this figure is accurate and will not contemplate making further increases.

Conclusion

Today's world, financial distress, it is an external view, however, present problems in the economic theory of truth is practiced. Defects in theory lead to problems in applying the world's population and thus bring honor some of these economic problems.

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