Probably too early to make or predict what happens to the world economy in 2010. But, the signs are already visible koq since the last 3 months in 2009. This article may be one of your guidance in trading Forex at the time & the years ahead.
There is an interesting approach in which the foreign institutions that are not our ears such as Standard Chartered Plc, Aletti Gestielle SGR, HSBC Holdings Plc and Scotia Capital Inc., said the dollar would depreciate as much as 7.1 percent against the euro. Even if the Fed is still raising interest rates even though, the dollar will continue to decline. Currently, the value of fiscal and monetary stimulus United States has reached 12 trillion and do not forget, the value of debt from the sale of American bonds have reached $ 4 trillion for the period 2009 and 2010 would cost currency. America's unemployment rate as of last October has reached 10.2% which makes many market analysts believe the economic recovery in America may be weakened.
"History tells us dollar for dollar should not hold too long until 12 months after the Fed began to raise interest rates" said Callum Henderson, an analyst at Standard Chartered in Singapore. Bloomberg's best analysts predict the dollar will weaken to 5.4 percent to $ 1.58 per euro by 2010, from $ 1.4944 today (23 November 2009). "It takes time to drain the excess supply of dollars from the market," said Henderson. "The dollar will remain weak despite Fed interest rate rises above competitors'.
G10
The U.S. will be one of the five economic regions in Group 10 for wait rising interest rates at a meeting in mid-2010, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 60 economists. Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of England and Swiss National Bank will raise interest rates in the third quarter of 2010 and the Bank of Japan will maintain interest rates at least 0.10% until March 2011, based on the survey. In late 2010, only Japan has the lowest interest rates because they are still tangled in inflation. U.S. interest rate target in 2010 is 1%, compared with a passion the ECB will raise interest rates to 1.5 percent of the European Union.
U.S. borrowing costs would make dollar-based assets less attractive, said Camilla Sutton, director of foreign exchange strategist at Scotia Capital, Toronto. Bank of Nova Scotia, the best predictor CHF currencies, predicted in 2010 will end with a weakening U.S. dollar at $ 1.60 per euro.
"The dollar will lose the opportunity to plan the race a short distance inter-bank interest rate hikes and then would lose track marathon / long term," said Sutton.
Lessons of history
After the Fed raised interest rates, the performance of the dollar probably will mimic the pattern of three previous periods, said Henderson. Once policy makers began to increase borrowing costs in July 2004, the Dollar Index fell 10 percent and could not go back to where it was before the first increase and stayed there for more than a month until November 2005.
Intercontinental Exchange Inc. 's measure the dollar fell 6 percent and takes seven months to recover after the Fed raised interest rates in July 1999. In 1994, the dollar dropped 16% and reached the point of origin in 1997. In summary, based on technical observations, the dollar will weaken against the euro, yen, Swiss franc and Swedish krona on September 30, 2010. The pound sterling and Canadian dollar, will surpass the dollar amounted to 0.3 percent and 2 percent.
Limiting Liquidity
Twenty-four of 37 predictions for the end of next year has a strengthening U.S. dollar against the euro. The median is $ 1.47, up 1.7 percent. Twenty-seven of the 31 strategies also see the Yen will be "battered" 13.6 percent to 101 yen from 88.87 today, November 23, 2009.
"The dollar will gain support immediately after the Fed began to control liquidity," said Lee Hardman, an analyst in London at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd., Japan. Dollar rose 10.7 percent would be $ 1.35 per euro by the end of 2010, according to predictions the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd..
Global Growth
"Financial markets and stock markets have been too optimistic about economic growth next year," said Gernot Griebling, a bank analyst at Stuttgart, Germany. "The risk of rejection should rise again," by analyzing the dollar will strengthen to U.S. $ 1.37 on 30 September. For now, the global recovery is on track that you want, based on observation of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris, world economic growth could reach 1.9% in 2010 and 2.5% in 2011. The recovery here means to encourage investment in higher currency-like stock by selling dollars.
Dollar Index has fallen 15.5 percent since March 5, 2009, a very steep decline for 23 years. The decline occurred from four days before the Standard & Poor's 500 Index rallied since the start of the 1930s, rising 60%. Fed Chairman spoke on 16 November 2009 and that "significant economic challenges remain" in the United States and repeated the Federal Open Market Committee will keep interest rates fixed for a certain period.
Wait
Policy makers might not change direction until the year 2012, according to a statement James Bullard, St Louis Fed President on November 18, 2009.
"If you look at the last two recessions, in each case, the FOMC to wait 2 1 / 2 to three years to raise interest rates, said Bullard.
It seems from what was submitted this article, an analyst at Standard Chartered's Henderson and Sutton Scotia Capital will become a reality, that the depreciation of the dollar will reach $ 1.50 and $ 1.60 per euro in mid-2010.
The dollar will weaken, as its status as a reserve currency and the public deficit, "said Sutton, a former finance manager of the Ontario Municipal Employees Retirement System.
Budget Deficit
U.S. budget deficit hit a record $ 1.4 trillion in the fiscal year ended September 30, 2010. Debts amounting to 9.9 percent of the economy, up from 2004 which is an average of 3.5 percent. Central banks revealed that they prefer to put 63 percent of their new money into the euro and yen in April, May and June 2009, and its value has reached $ 80 billion, according to Barclays Capital data.
Henderson saw similarities with 2004, when the Fed has lowered interest rates below the ECB's overnight.
Recession in 2001, caused by the fall of technology stocks, pushing the U.S. to cut interest rates 5.5 points to 1 percent in June 2003, a dot below the euro area. Fed holds 1% interest rate until June 2004, more than two years after the recession ended. Dollar began to regroup after beating rate of the ECB to raise interest rates to 2 percent in December 2004.
"If the peak of the crisis in 2001 and 2008, the weakness of the dollar will end in 2011," Henderson said.
When the Fed started tightening, the dollar continues to weaken "said Ray Farris, head of global foreign exchange research at Credit Suisse Group AG in London, the euro-dollar fortune teller world's third-best." This is really just a matter of tightening in the final stages of the Fed when U.S. interest rates relatively high and the dollar will stabilize and then recover. "
Dollar falls fell to its lowest point at $ 1.6038 in July 2008, when the ECB's interest rate reached 2.25%. Then after that, the euro weakened after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for bankruptcy in September 2008. Investors then holding the dollar and the yen to find the safe side.
There is an interesting word spoken from Jens Nordvig, managing director and chairman of the G-10 experts at Nomura International Plc in New York, Japan's largest brokerage firm: "Nothing in the cards from the point of monetary policy that could persuade me to become a seller of dollars in the year 2010 ". Nomura International Plc is a Japanese broker bought Lehman Brothers assets, Europe, Asia and the Middle East in 2008.
Belajarforex Says
At least there is disagreement in which Standard Chartered Plc, Aletti Gestielle SGR, HSBC Holdings Plc and Scotia Capital Inc., said the dollar will weaken devastating in 2010 and Nomura International Plc who fear the dollar will go up after a new financial crisis in 2010.
We, belajarforex.com still think the dollar will weaken to as low as 1.6040 in the year 2010, though not absolutely 100% going to climb, but no effect of 20-80, ie every 80% increase in Euros there will be 20% of the strengthening dollar go to the left, and so on .
Oh yes, Forex koq suitable for intra-day traded. As a reference, use the time frame for D1, add indicators Bolinger Bands & Stochastic oscillator yes ...
Following mechanism:
Open Stochastic oscillator parameters 10; 5; 5,
Take it from the Insert menu of indicators, indicators, oscillator, 10, 5, 5,
Make Stochastic oscillator as an indicator of trends.
Open Bolinger Bands from the Insert menu, Indicators, Trend, Boliber Bands, period 20.
Bolinger top line: line 1
Bolinger middle line: 2 lines
Bolinger bottom line: line 3.
If the price (look at the candlestick) is translucent line 1: Open Sell, Kalo prices (visible in the candlestick) is translucent line 3 means good for open Buy.
Buy the best signal is when the price will not leave the area 20 from bottom to top.
Sell signal is best when the price is going to leave the area 80 from top to bottom.
Happy trading.
ZIMBIO
Popular Posts
-
All organisms consist of small cells, typically too small to be seen by a naked eye, but big enough for an optical microscope . Each cell...
-
A muslim man and his wife are walking down a crowded street in Miami. It’s hot and humid. The woman is covered showing nothing but he...
-
BIP 45 ( Badan Intelijen Pejuang 1945 ) telah bangkit kembali , berdasarkan aspirasi BIP 45 lama yang dikotori dan dikacaukan oleh eleme...
-
Another news story, another mention of a trillion–or more–dollars. If it's difficult to even comprehend laying "one...
-
Customers who bought this also bought Product Details Synopsis In December 2005, Congress approved the...
-
Under US political and economic Orwellian “leadership,” Americans are told: Our increasing national debt (public and private) is a “money ...
-
ScienceDaily (Feb. 24, 2009) — While working on her doctorate, Anette Bauer Ellingsen discovered potentially disease-causi...
-
DNA is the main information carrier molecule in a cell. DNA may be single or double stranded . A single stranded DNA molecule, also called...
-
Customers who bought this also bought Product Details Synopsis In December 2005, Congress approved the...
Sunday, 29 May 2011
FINAL REPORT OF THE ECONOMY INDONESIA
INTRODUCTION TO EDITOR
Economic Crisis of 1998, not Forgotten Tragedy
"Miracle of the lost". That is the most appropriate term given to the Indonesian economy through 1998. After decades swayed by such amazing growth, in 1998 Indonesia's economy contracted so great. Year-end economic report will reveal all the matter and try to describe the situation for the coming year. The report will set forth two consecutive days, Monday (21/12) and Tuesday, in the Rubric and Rubric MAIN OPINION. All are written by economic journalist Compass, Andi Suruji, Banu Astono, Dedi Muhtadi, Ferry Irwanto, Ninuk M Pambudy, Pieter P Gero, Simon Saragih, Sri Hartati Samhadi, Subur Tjahjono, Tjahja Gunawan, Joseph Umar Hadi, and Yovita Arika.
IN 1998 a witness to the tragedy of the nation's economy. His condition was very tragic and recorded as the most dismal period in the history of the Indonesian economy. Maybe she will always be remembered, as we always remember the black Monday which marked the beginning of the world economic recession October 29, 1929 which is also referred to as the malaise.
Only in a year, dramatic changes occur. Economic accomplishments achieved in two decades, so it sinks. He also once turned all shadows beautiful and sunny in sight to welcome the third millennium.
During the first nine months of 1998, no doubt is the most frenzied period in the economy. The crisis that has been running six months during 1997, grew even worse in a faster tempo. The impact of the crisis began to be felt obviously by the public, the business world.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) began to lend a hand since October 1997, but proved unable to immediately improve the economic stability and the rupiah. Even such a situation out of control, like a broken kite string. Indonesia's economic crisis even recorded as the worst in Southeast Asia.
Like a snowball effect, the crisis that was originally only started from the baht exchange rate crisis in Thailand July 2, 1997, in 1998 quickly developed into an economic crisis, social crisis and then continued again to the political crisis.
Finally, he also developed into a total crisis that crippled almost all the joints of the nation's life. Tell me, what sectors in this country who does not waver. Even the seat or throne of former President Suharto was shaky, and eventually he left. Maybe Soeharto, for the rest of his life would condemn the devaluation of the baht, which triggered all this.
Snowball effect
The factors that accelerate this snowball effect is menguapnya rapidly public confidence, worsening health condition of President Suharto entered the year 1998, the uncertainty of succession of leadership, wishy-washy attitude of the government in making policies, the magnitude of foreign debt immediately due, the international trade situation is less profitable, and La Nina natural disaster that brought the worst drought in 50 years.
Of the total foreign debt as of March 1998 which reached 138 billion U.S. dollars, about 72.5 billion U.S. dollars of private debt is two-thirds of short-term, in which about 20 billion U.S. dollars will be due in 1998. While at that time lived reserves of about 14.44 billion U.S. dollars.
Confidence collapsed to zero makes the rupiah closed at Rp 4.850/dollar U.S. in 1997, slid quickly to a level of approximately USD 17.000/dollar the U.S. on January 22, 1998, or depreciate more than 80 percent since the currency diambangkan August 14, 1997 .
Amount of drift, other than due to increased demand for dollars to pay debts, as well as a reaction to the draft budget figures 1998 / 1999 which was announced January 6, 1998 and considered not realistic.
The crisis that open ulcers fragility of the economic fundamentals of this rapidly expanded to all sectors. Rupiah drop dramatically, causing the money market and capital markets also fell, national banks in big trouble and the international ranking of the major banks and even government bonds continued to fall to levels below junk or a junk.
Dozens, even hundreds of companies, ranging from small scale up to a conglomerate, collapsed. About 70 percent of companies listed on the stock market was also insolvent or bankrupt postscript.
The sectors hardest hit are mainly the construction sector, manufacturing, and banking, so that gave birth to a big wave of layoffs (layoffs). Unemployment soared to levels not seen since the late 1960's, which is about 20 million people or 20 percent more of the workforce.
As a result of layoffs and rising prices quickly, the number of people below the poverty line also increased to about 50 percent of the total population. While busy invade the rich food stores in an atmosphere of panic, worried that prices will continue to soar.
Income per capita reaches 1155 dollars per capita in 1996 and 1088 dollars per capita in 1997, shrank to 610 dollars per capita in 1998, and two of the three population of Indonesia is called the International Labor Organization (ILO) in very poor condition in 1999 if the economy not soon improve.
Central Bureau of Statistics data also show that the economy is still recorded positive growth of 3.4 percent in the third quarter of 1997 and zero percent the last quarter of 1997, continues to shrink sharply to a contraction of 7.9 percent in the first quarter of 1998, 16.5 percent second quarter 1998 , and 17.9 percent third quarter 1998. Similarly, the rate of inflation until August 1998 was 54.54 percent, with inflation rate reached 12.67 percent in February.
In capital markets, Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) Jakarta Stock Exchange (JSX) dropped to its lowest level, 292.12 points, on September 15, 1998, from 467.339 on July 1, 1997 start of the crisis. While the market capitalization shrank drastically from the Rp 226 trillion to Rp 196 trillion at the beginning of July 1998.
In the money market, the raising of interest rate Bank Indonesia Certificates (SBI) to 70.8 percent and Money Market Securities (SBPU) to 60 percent in July 1998 (from 10.87 per cent respectively and 14.75 percent at the beginning of the crisis) , causing difficulty rising bank. Negative spread of banking experience and was unable to perform its functions as supplier of funds to the real sector.
On the other hand, the export sector is expected to be a savior in the midst of a crisis, it turns out the same collapsed and was unable to utilize the momentum of depreciation of the rupiah, due to debt burden, large dependence on imported components, trade financing difficulties, and stiff competition in the global market.
During the period from January to June 1998, oil exports dropped about 34.1 percent compared to same period 1997, while non-oil exports grew only 5.36 percent.
Anomaly
The crisis of confidence this creates anomalous conditions and make monetary instruments can not work to stabilize the rupiah and the economy. While on the other hand, the fiscal sector is expected to be driving the economy, is also under pressure due to reflux of receipt.
The situation continued to deteriorate rapidly as the government lost direction and orientation in dealing with the crisis. In the middle position goyahnya, Suharto could convey the concept of "IMF Plus", namely the IMF plus CBS (Currency Board System) in front of the Assembly, before finally abandoned the idea altogether March 20, for obtaining an objection here and there could even bring up the tension with IMF, and IMF had suspended the aid.
CBS and the planned abandonment of the government's promise to return to the IMF program, making the IMF and international support to flow again. On 4 April 1998, all three signed a Letter of Intent. However kelimbungan Suharto, has had time to eliminate a variety of momentum or a chance to prevent the ongoing crisis.
Even trigger adrenali society, which previously regarded to be quiet fierce. Popular anger over the helplessness of government to control the crisis in the middle of the prices continue to soar and waves of layoffs, quickly turned into protests, rioting and bloody clashes in the capital city and other areas, which led to the downfall of Suharto on May 21, 1998.
This bloody tragedy in the scale of capital flight triggered a so-called reach 20 billion U.S. dollars, a wave of entrepreneurs leave descendants, the destruction of a national distribution network, interruption of foreign financing, and ditangguhkannya much foreign investment plan in Indonesia.
The emergence of a new government that has no legitimacy, and more busy with maneuvers to win the hearts of the people, not much help the situation. Deterioration of economic conditions, social, and political with this fast continues until at least the second quarter, even the third quarter of 1998. Thus, we have witnessed the worst episodes of the economy through 1998 .*
FINAL REPORT OF THE ECONOMY
Bankrupt Banks Era
Bankrupt Banks Era
INDUSTRY banking during 1998 so the hustle and bustle. Long line of customers banking industry welcomes the beginning of 1998. They really have placed trust in banks under the soles of the feet. Liquidation action without taking into account customer panic, be the beginning of all banking tempest.
Fortunately there is no guarantee of customer deposits, the government issued early 1998 as well. Banking difficulties on one side can be saved because no longer have to dicecer customer panic. However, that assurance can never end the banking crisis had become chronic.
In addition to the legacy of past disease, there are some characters who massacred the banking industry during 1998. First is the legacy of the panic that resulted in customer funding sources empty. Bank Indonesia is to inject liquidity in the form of BLBI. However, the imposition of interest rate BLBI, has also made the owners face a growing burden.
There are other factors that color again, that lending rates higher than the interest rate deposits. The result is a negative spread. Expenses grew just bankers. That said, our banks have stayed buildings without content.
The economic recession has dumped all the loans extended into the garbage. Ideally, owners of the banks themselves have to inject capital to give the spirit of the banking system. However, it can not be done. The owner of the bank also went bankrupt, because loans extended to his own group, trapped in bad loans.
Moreover, some credit has evaporated and most of the savings bank owners in the international banking system. Concerns about an uncomfortable business in Indonesia, have made them run helter-skelter.
As a result, the BI must bear all the burden on the banking. De facto, majority owner of the national banking system is government through the Bank Indonesia. Even most of the private bank's shares have been gripped by the National Bank Restructuring Agency (IBRA).
But the takeover by Bank Indonesia on the shares of national banks, is also not solve the problem. Ideally, as in many countries, governments become helper majority of banking difficulties.
But the government was now like a helter-skelter, suddenly faced with the burden caused ulcers sweeping the banking industry. Ulcers, it is very clearly seen in the majority of bank ratings categorized B (capital has become a negative 25 percent of assets) and C (capital is negative below 25 percent) over the asset.
The government is planning to recapitalize by issuing bonds. It is estimated that there will be Rp 257 trillion to inject bank capital. But the figure was considered too moderate, far from adequate. Own bank nonperforming loans also reached more than Rp 300 trillion. However, Rp 257 trillion figure is also not easy to be fulfilled.
**
BEFORE recapitalization plan, there are a number of policies issued by the government for healthy banks. Ironically, the policies issued by any bank-to nourish the child-like play rope. Back and forth almost always color the government's policy on banking.
Policy in finance and banking are often revised. Take for example, the pattern of a refund of Bank Indonesia Liquidity Support (BLBI) changing. The government previously set a time limit BLBI return for five years, then changed again to one year.
Until finally after going through many-debate, the government set a deadline of four years for the majority share owner suspended bank (BBO) and the banks take over (BTO) to settle their obligations. However, government policy-plintut plintat can confuse market participants and reduce public confidence in the banking sector.
So, do not be surprised if people continue to confuse. Actually, confusion and panic in society are indirectly created by the government through policies that are not intact. After the return policy BLBI already somewhat bright and clear, now appear recapitalization program (additional capital) banks that are part of the national banking restructuring policy.
Policies that would be even then, not yet clear government policy direction to be taken in the banking world. With the government's bank recapitalization berobsesi create a sound banking and strong and able to compete in the global market.
***
IN the middle of the confusion, we asked. How healthy banking system. Until now all that remains a big question? Thus, in 1999, the banking industry can not be expected to operate as normal. They have not quite capable of giving credits.
If anyone can operate normally, it's just foreign banks or mixed, or private banks that had been careful enough to channel the funds. However, the number of banks that can act like a finger only in numbers.
Then how prospective national banking? Until now nobody could give complete answers. Various circles, both domestic and internationally in various seminars, are also very confused to see endemic disease banking. In 1999, will still be continued with a number of questions how to settle the banking system.
But clearly, a liquidation is inevitable. That is part of banking reforms, which could be said, also remains a step summary. Thus, observing the banking industry during 1999 is something they look forward.
Actually there is the most urgent thing that seems to have no correlation, but to nourish the banking industry, it is absolutely necessary. As known, in what is already integrated, the role of capital flows have become a buffer the economy, and banking as well as one country.
That capital flows, including those in the category of portfolio investment in the form of stock-bond or other money market products. Other capital flows, are also referred to as foreign direct investment (FDI flows).
For the Asia Pacific region, including Indonesia, it has happened. But the uniqueness of Indonesia, could not immediately reverse the capital flows out into capital inflows. South Korea and Thailand, are the most accurate and astute, and realize the importance of capital flows back into it.
For Indonesia, although considered attractive, but the bloody riots have made investors terrified to go to Indonesia. Let alone to berbinis, for even they are reluctant to visit. Therefore, political tranquility, is the absolute thing that must be listened to authority.
FINAL REPORT OF THE ECONOMY
Economic Recovery Depends on the Settlement of Political Agenda
IMPLEMENTATION political agenda in a safe, smooth, orderly and in accordance with the aspirations of most people is a must, if desired economy will soon recover. Conversely, when social unrest is increasing, and elections can not be done, it is difficult to expect an economic recovery in quick time.
Admiral Sukardi rate, economic conditions in 1999 are in a critical situation. This means that the national economy at a crossroads between the possibility of recovery and destruction. Half-half chances.
Investors be waiting, whether the elections will run an honest and fair, and democratic. Both are conditional on the establishment of a credible government of the people. If so, then the Indonesian economy will quickly recover, because investors will definitely come back to Indonesia.
Therefore, the desires of the whole people of Indonesia who wants honest elections, fair, transparent, and democratic have actually implemented and not negotiable. According to him, foreign capital inflows as the best way of economic recovery can only happen if there is a clean government, supported by the people, the rule of law and independent judicial system.
The success of the elections and the General Assembly in 1999 are not necessarily just happen. Start now to be prepared. But the shadow of failure is still raging, given the intensity of violence and incidence of robbery and looting that makes people feel unsafe are still common.
***
SEE importance of political settlement, national dialogue pegelaran plan is very important. Through national dialogue, it is expected the figures involved the perception that elections should succeed and fit people's aspirations.
We are both willing, democratic government and supported the people. The government now dare to admit, that he is preparing for the transition and only the government that will come. Instead of national figures should also be brave to admit the current administration.
In addition to political problems, economic sectors, especially monetary reform is also very important, if we expect the economic recovery. Two fundamental problems that must be resolved, namely the restructuring of banking and foreign debt.
First, bank restructuring should be managed. Recapitalization plan probably will not work. Therefore, the government must dare to make the closure of banks that are not solvent, thus only a few banks are strong and professional.
Prior to overcome the private banking sector, state-owned banks should also be completed. If the bank issue is not resolved, then there will be no economic activity, since no Kodal employment and trade.
Second, the problem of foreign debt and private. How far this LN debt problem can be solved. Because, to end the banking crisis of international confidence in the government depends on the settlement of the debt. If default, then the credibility down and investors are reluctant to enter Indonesia.
Chairman of the Indonesian Young Entrepreneurs Association, Haryadi B Sukamdani said, as a businessman it had to be optimistic. But if you look at the field, especially the political developments there, so that there is only feeling anxious and insecure. Because the election is still far away, but the intensity of violence is quite high, especially later when approached the campaign and election.
Therefore, the attitude of employers in 1999 this is definitely going to wait. Investments will not be there. What is happening, the entrepreneurs only increase volume and sales of existing ones. Employers can not rely on the domestic market, but abroad.
If the political settlement, the people support the new government, the economy will quickly return. Of particular concern is that if there was social unrest due to failure of elections that do not accommodate people's aspirations.
With such considerations, the business community see the condition of the national economy in 1999 is like a person who was driving in the middle "thick fog". Heavy fog (socio-political situation-Red) causes the driver (read: employers) can not look far ahead. On the basis of safety considerations, then the rider had no choice but to discontinue the trip and wait until the fog was gone .*
FINAL REPORT OF THE ECONOMY
Rupiah and stock, weaving How Snakes
Rupiah and stock, weaving How Snakes
RUPIAH did not want to miss the red ink has been incised in the history of the economy. Stock markets were the case, the volatile and if drawn looks like a snake winding. Still remember when the rupiah exchange rate is almost through Rp 17,000 per U.S. dollar on June 17, 1998?
Once Suharto's claim to resign as President of the 2nd RI May 21, 1998-estimated what the market and could ease the wave-stroke also helped the rupiah. Rupiah was around Rp 11,000 per U.S. dollar. The tendency of the market weakening rupiah, continued to worsen since the shootings Trisakti May 12, and acts of looting May 14 in Jakarta.
This was followed by a wave of unrest and political action that seemed inexhaustible after the resignation of Suharto. Blows insistently over the rupiah reached his gong, after the Japanese yen currency to depreciate sharply June 12, 1998. The rupiah plummeted further to Rp 17,000, the lowest level during its history.
The economic conditions that have contracted to minus 13 percent, high inflation, soaring interest rates that banks give bad impact for companies including those already listed on the stock. end the banking crisis Composite Stock Price Index (CSPI) Jakarta Stock Exchange (JSE) in September and then finally reached the lowest point of 254 points.
Towards the close of 1998, stock index climbed slightly increased beyond the level of 400 points. Interest rates began to decline due to inflation comes under control and action on foreign exchange speculation which began to subside helped. It is also experienced rupiah which tend to have improved since last September and now continue to roost at the level of Rp 7,000 to Rp 8,000.
***
FOLLOW trip rupiah exchange rate and stock index during 1998 is like up and down mountains with steep valleys and canyons. "The limit is the sky rupiah," said economic analyst Hartojo Wignjowijoto when the rupiah continued to weaken approaching USD 17 000 in June.
Market can not compromise with political developments. Negative condition is aggravated by global developments such as the fall of the yen exchange rate.
The rupiah a year ago is still moving between Rp 4,000 - Rp 5,000 per U.S. dollar. Not too "bad" when associated with the current state of moving between Rp 7,000 - Rp 8,000. However, domestic economic conditions were no longer able to support the rupiah is expected to remain stable since the Bank Indonesia (BI) releases the range of interventions August 14, 1997 and closed 16 private banks in November.
Political maneuvering further exacerbate the market confidence on the Indonesian economy. The presence of candidate for vice president BJ Habibie at the time, make the market believe that Indonesia will remain with a high cost economy. The attitude of the government which also tug assistance programs in reaching agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) further complicate the situation.
It is also seen in stock prices on the JSE. Having had time to soar beyond 700 points in June 1997, the stock index continued to free fall nearly 300 points in December and January 1998. Luckily, the government signed a letter of intent with the IMF on January 15, making foreign exchange and stock markets reacted positively to the improving economy.
The rupiah strengthened immediately return to below USD 10,000. Even had time to be under Rp 8,000 per U.S. dollar in February. BI intervention in the foreign exchange market helped. Revision of the Draft State Budget 1998 / 1999, an act of the first revision done during this administration, also shows the serious attitude of government in a crisis.
On the stock market, stock prices also jumped back. The index continues to rise above 500 points in February 1998. According to market observers Jasso Winarto that time, foreign investors began to target the seed stocks of Indonesia when it was very cheap. The agreement with the IMF also gave positive sentiment Indonesia's economic crisis will soon improve.
***
AS many observers say, Indonesia's financial crisis was already widened into an economic crisis. Not only that, the crisis also began to get into politics which has practically become "taboo areas." As a result, the belief in the Indonesian economy is slowly but surely, began to disappear.
Letter of credit (L / C) from Indonesia is no longer acceptable to all parties in foreign countries. More frantic again, overseas borrowers urged the recipients of loans in the country to immediately pay its debts. At that time, an estimated 9.8 billion U.S. dollars of short-term private sector debt maturing Indonesia. As a result, pressure on the rupiah increasingly insistent.
Foreign exchange markets and stock exchanges such as have been broken charcoal against the government of Indonesia. As already stated above, since it kept the rupiah plunged to nearly USD 17 000 (in Singapore has reached USD 17 000). Stock price index also began to show declining tendency through the number 400 points to go up a little just a few times minor correction.
Since June and July 1998, the rupiah which reached the lowest rate, slowly began to improve. The pressure on the rupiah began to weaken, after some negotiations for the settlement of private foreign debt reached an agreement in Frankfurt, Germany. The IMF also began to disburse aid funds. A number of friendly countries are also beginning to show a supportive attitude of Indonesia's economic program.
Unfortunately, this recovery step has not been seen in the stock market. Stock prices kept falling. Not infrequently, the share price on the JSE was worth the price of candy. The price of cigarettes or mineral water far above the price per share. Stock index continues to fall until September to its lowest 254 points.
The question is whether the rupiah exchange rate and stock index will still be stable at this level when entering the year 1999? End of 1998, the rupiah and the stock recovered somewhat. However, as noted, the problem faced by an individual or a nation, must begin to be resolved from ourselves.
That means, since the current government should be able to solve all economic and political issues in the country. Transparent, firm, clear, and quickly needed. Do not get even cause confusion and obscurity .*
Beware Cycle Global Economic Crisis
Macroeconomic expert at Harvard University, Jefffrey Frankel, macro economics would predict natural cycles of global economic crisis in 2012. He spoke in the forum "Coping With Asia's in the Multi-speed Global Economy" held the IMF, Bank Indonesia, and
Related News
VP: Indonesia should be Thankful
Banks Confront Excess Rules
Publish Immediately President Presidential Overcome Congestion
Parliament: Widening Traffic Safety Sumatra Must Watch
BI Prepare Ownership Restrictions Banking Rules
Nusa Dua, Bali (ANTARA News) - The macro economist from Harvard University, Jeffrey Frankel, reminiscent of the possibility of global economic crisis cycle every 15 years.
"The implications of this crisis mainly hit the markets grow in 2012," he said during a talk on "Coping With Asia` s Large capital inflows In a Multi-speed Global Economy "in Nusa Dua, Bali, on Friday.
Forum of academics and founder of the state and central bank policies in the Asia-Pacific region was initiated by the International Monetary Fund, Bank Indonesia, and BPKM.
Frankel study on the global economic crisis due to international capital flows occur three times, first in 1975-1981 when the "gift" of world oil production led to the worldwide financial crisis. Product finally occurred in 1982 led to the "lost generation" in Latin America in 1982-1989.
The second cycle occurs in the blast growing markets in 1990-1996. Indonesia and Thailand suffered a big shock due to political and economic crisis which is also due to policies of the IMF on how to handle Indonesia's foreign debt burden.
In this second cycle, Latin American countries, namely Brazil and Argentina, together with Turkey and Russia also suffered due to continued monetary crisis in 1998-2002.
The last one in 2003-2008 which to delay the global financial crisis after the period, namely in 2008-2009. This third cycle may be led to the birth of the fourth cycle in 2010-2011.
"But times change. Today many developing countries have surpassed developed economies. In the 2008-2009 recession, China, Indonesia, India still has good economic growth rates, as well as their fiscal positions," he said.
Moreover, the position of private savings fund grow market countries are also growing steadily enhanced with fiscal policy with more mengeyampingkan prosiklik mechanism.
As a result, the credit rating market countries that grow better. Singapore, China, South Korea, Malaysia, and India has ranked in the top Belgium, Japan, Portugal, Ireland, and Greece.
The problem that then arises due to cyclical and capital movements, he said, is how central banks manage it. "Whether through capital controls, central bank intervention, or sterilization. As for the government of each country is through fiscal policy or whether agricultural commodities," he said.
Especially for central banks, capital controls can be applied in case of price penalty policies more moderate than the mere prohibition. "It would be better if it was designed to change the composition of capital inflows in addition to short-term interests, or bank loans," he said.
Related News
VP: Indonesia should be Thankful
Banks Confront Excess Rules
Publish Immediately President Presidential Overcome Congestion
Parliament: Widening Traffic Safety Sumatra Must Watch
BI Prepare Ownership Restrictions Banking Rules
Nusa Dua, Bali (ANTARA News) - The macro economist from Harvard University, Jeffrey Frankel, reminiscent of the possibility of global economic crisis cycle every 15 years.
"The implications of this crisis mainly hit the markets grow in 2012," he said during a talk on "Coping With Asia` s Large capital inflows In a Multi-speed Global Economy "in Nusa Dua, Bali, on Friday.
Forum of academics and founder of the state and central bank policies in the Asia-Pacific region was initiated by the International Monetary Fund, Bank Indonesia, and BPKM.
Frankel study on the global economic crisis due to international capital flows occur three times, first in 1975-1981 when the "gift" of world oil production led to the worldwide financial crisis. Product finally occurred in 1982 led to the "lost generation" in Latin America in 1982-1989.
The second cycle occurs in the blast growing markets in 1990-1996. Indonesia and Thailand suffered a big shock due to political and economic crisis which is also due to policies of the IMF on how to handle Indonesia's foreign debt burden.
In this second cycle, Latin American countries, namely Brazil and Argentina, together with Turkey and Russia also suffered due to continued monetary crisis in 1998-2002.
The last one in 2003-2008 which to delay the global financial crisis after the period, namely in 2008-2009. This third cycle may be led to the birth of the fourth cycle in 2010-2011.
"But times change. Today many developing countries have surpassed developed economies. In the 2008-2009 recession, China, Indonesia, India still has good economic growth rates, as well as their fiscal positions," he said.
Moreover, the position of private savings fund grow market countries are also growing steadily enhanced with fiscal policy with more mengeyampingkan prosiklik mechanism.
As a result, the credit rating market countries that grow better. Singapore, China, South Korea, Malaysia, and India has ranked in the top Belgium, Japan, Portugal, Ireland, and Greece.
The problem that then arises due to cyclical and capital movements, he said, is how central banks manage it. "Whether through capital controls, central bank intervention, or sterilization. As for the government of each country is through fiscal policy or whether agricultural commodities," he said.
Especially for central banks, capital controls can be applied in case of price penalty policies more moderate than the mere prohibition. "It would be better if it was designed to change the composition of capital inflows in addition to short-term interests, or bank loans," he said.
Indonesia in the Global Economic Crisis Whirls
WHEN is the global economy was sinking. Prolonged political crisis in the Middle East that begins in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, and Libya with bubbling in campurnya helped coalition forces, making global oil prices worse off. Saturday, March 26 yesterday, world oil prices recorded USD105, 40 per barrel. Even predictable, that price will still be an increase in the level of USD200 per barrel.
Of course, the world oil price increase will affect the economy of Indonesia. If the government does not reduce fuel subsidies (fuel), then the burden of state budget revenue and expenditure (budget) will be more swollen. However, Chief Economiest Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI), Ryan Irianto in Customer Gathering Area BNI Makassar recently judging, events in the Middle East only further impact.
The most threatening call Ryan is the impact of the earthquake and tsunami in Japan. Because the state was nicknamed Affairs of the Rising Sun is directly related to the Indonesian economy. Especially with the explosion of a nuclear reactor in Fukushima Prefecture, will cause energy "Asian Tigers" were dropped. World Bank Chief Economist for Asia Pacific region Vikram Nehru in Washington explained, if the growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) slowed from 0.25 to 0.5 percent of Japan, exports from Asia Pacific countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines will slow down more than 1, 5 percent.
Japan is the third major export destination countries of Indonesia, particularly fishery products. Based on the data presented Chairman of the Association of Fishery Products Processing and Marketing Indonesia (AP5I), Thomas said, fishery product exports to Japan during the period January-September 2010 worth approximately USD16, 5 million. Based on data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), total Indonesian non-oil exports to Japan during 2010 amounted to USD16, 496 billion.
How to Sulawesi? Head of Foreign Trade Department of Industry and Trade of South Sulawesi, Habib Ahmad said the total exports to Japan, South Sulawesi in 2010 USD1, 315 billion. Of the total exports, the contribution of nickel by 67 percent. In 2010, total exports of nickel USD1, 276 billion, while 2009 only USD760 million.
Other exports to Japan which included a large fresh fish in 2010 was $ 4, 96 million, shrimp USD19, 7 million, flying fish eggs $ 4, 5 million. Achmad hoped, for the short term the U.S. market, Singapore, Malaysia also can offset a decline in export value to the Land of the Rising Sun. Moreover, economic growth in South Sulawesi more driven by agriculture and fishery sectors.
Data Department of Marine and Fisheries of South Sulawesi, South Sulawesi fishery exports in 2010 reached 54,711.3 tons, worth USD156.645, 4 million. Of 4896 tons of frozen shrimp or equivalent USD52.760, 4 million, amounting to 41,588 tons of sea grass or USD47.445, 3 million. Tuna, skipjack and tuna at 2978.3 tonnes or USD20.650 million, and other fish, amounting to 5249 tons or equivalent USD35.789, 7 million. However, the Malaysian market, the U.S. and China, seems to be an alternative export of South Sulawesi. Data Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) said South Sulawesi, in January 2011 exports to Japan reached only $ 4, 817 million. Others to Malaysia USD15, 436 million, U.S. $ 8, 065 million, and China USD9, 697 million, 2.742 million Singapore, the Netherlands USD0, 759 million, Germany $ 3, 081 million, Vietnam USD1, 838 million, and South Korea $ 1, 762 million
Of course, the world oil price increase will affect the economy of Indonesia. If the government does not reduce fuel subsidies (fuel), then the burden of state budget revenue and expenditure (budget) will be more swollen. However, Chief Economiest Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI), Ryan Irianto in Customer Gathering Area BNI Makassar recently judging, events in the Middle East only further impact.
The most threatening call Ryan is the impact of the earthquake and tsunami in Japan. Because the state was nicknamed Affairs of the Rising Sun is directly related to the Indonesian economy. Especially with the explosion of a nuclear reactor in Fukushima Prefecture, will cause energy "Asian Tigers" were dropped. World Bank Chief Economist for Asia Pacific region Vikram Nehru in Washington explained, if the growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) slowed from 0.25 to 0.5 percent of Japan, exports from Asia Pacific countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines will slow down more than 1, 5 percent.
Japan is the third major export destination countries of Indonesia, particularly fishery products. Based on the data presented Chairman of the Association of Fishery Products Processing and Marketing Indonesia (AP5I), Thomas said, fishery product exports to Japan during the period January-September 2010 worth approximately USD16, 5 million. Based on data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), total Indonesian non-oil exports to Japan during 2010 amounted to USD16, 496 billion.
How to Sulawesi? Head of Foreign Trade Department of Industry and Trade of South Sulawesi, Habib Ahmad said the total exports to Japan, South Sulawesi in 2010 USD1, 315 billion. Of the total exports, the contribution of nickel by 67 percent. In 2010, total exports of nickel USD1, 276 billion, while 2009 only USD760 million.
Other exports to Japan which included a large fresh fish in 2010 was $ 4, 96 million, shrimp USD19, 7 million, flying fish eggs $ 4, 5 million. Achmad hoped, for the short term the U.S. market, Singapore, Malaysia also can offset a decline in export value to the Land of the Rising Sun. Moreover, economic growth in South Sulawesi more driven by agriculture and fishery sectors.
Data Department of Marine and Fisheries of South Sulawesi, South Sulawesi fishery exports in 2010 reached 54,711.3 tons, worth USD156.645, 4 million. Of 4896 tons of frozen shrimp or equivalent USD52.760, 4 million, amounting to 41,588 tons of sea grass or USD47.445, 3 million. Tuna, skipjack and tuna at 2978.3 tonnes or USD20.650 million, and other fish, amounting to 5249 tons or equivalent USD35.789, 7 million. However, the Malaysian market, the U.S. and China, seems to be an alternative export of South Sulawesi. Data Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) said South Sulawesi, in January 2011 exports to Japan reached only $ 4, 817 million. Others to Malaysia USD15, 436 million, U.S. $ 8, 065 million, and China USD9, 697 million, 2.742 million Singapore, the Netherlands USD0, 759 million, Germany $ 3, 081 million, Vietnam USD1, 838 million, and South Korea $ 1, 762 million
CURRENCY OF ISLAM
Gold and Silver is the second most suitable commodities to be used to back currency. Reuse Dinar and Dirham As Currency Islam course will impact the thinking and lifestyle of Muslims in these last days.
Dinar and Dirham feqah known as sharia currency or coins syarikah (see a) Muqadimah, Ibn Khaldun). Islamic coins the term is specific to the dinar & dirham only and should not be used for other coins. While other coins are all known as the coin is not syarii (Ibn Khaldun).
The term Alternative Currency or currency options the currency does not apply to the sharia or Islamic coins because the term 'Islamic coins' is specifically for the Dinar & Dirham only and is not an alternative to other currencies is not syarii. The two coins that stand alone with no alternative.
In the history of Islamic coins, never became the legal tender currency. In the practice of the early Muslim community, not only currency used sharia as an intermediary in exchange for payment. Barley, dates and salt are also used as a medium of exchange for payment. Therefore, there is no exclusive rights granted to Islamic coins.
During the reign of Saidina Ummar, the pattern of Islamic currency has been carved with the name of Allah, and some of the verses of the Qur'an. The weight of a dinar currency has been set to equal the current size of 4.25 grams.
Elimination of the currency system of Islam has been much damage to mankind, such as poverty, environmental degradation, production and distribution monopoly. The financial system is now bringing a lot of problems such as unemployment, crime, immoral & moral decline.
Now, the gold dinar was back, and many Muslims and non-Muslims from all over the world call for the gold dinar was restored.
Gold Dinar is a gold-based currency is intended to be used throughout the world particularly in Islamic countries. The term was chosen because it is based on Islamic currency used in the country Madinah al-Munawwarah at the time of the Prophet Muhammad, the dinar.
CURRENCY OF ISLAM
Posted on October 28, 2010 by admin
Gold and Silver is the second most suitable commodities to be used to back currency. Reuse Dinar and Dirham As Currency Islam course will impact the thinking and lifestyle of Muslims in these last days.
Dinar and Dirham feqah known as sharia currency or coins syarikah (see a) Muqadimah, Ibn Khaldun). Islamic coins the term is specific to the dinar & dirham only and should not be used for other coins. While other coins are all known as the coin is not syarii (Ibn Khaldun).
The term Alternative Currency or currency options the currency does not apply to the sharia or Islamic coins because the term 'Islamic coins' is specifically for the Dinar & Dirham only and is not an alternative to other currencies is not syarii. The two coins that stand alone with no alternative.
In the history of Islamic coins, never became the legal tender currency. In the practice of the early Muslim community, not only currency used sharia as an intermediary in exchange for payment. Barley, dates and salt are also used as a medium of exchange for payment. Therefore, there is no exclusive rights granted to Islamic coins.
During the reign of Saidina Ummar, the pattern of Islamic currency has been carved with the name of Allah, and some of the verses of the Qur'an. The weight of a dinar currency has been set to equal the current size of 4.25 grams.
Elimination of the currency system of Islam has been much damage to mankind, such as poverty, environmental degradation, production and distribution monopoly. The financial system is now bringing a lot of problems such as unemployment, crime, immoral & moral decline.
Now, the gold dinar was back, and many Muslims and non-Muslims from all over the world call for the gold dinar was restored.
Gold Dinar is a gold-based currency is intended to be used throughout the world particularly in Islamic countries. The term was chosen because it is based on Islamic currency used in the country Madinah al-Munawwarah at the time of the Prophet Muhammad, the dinar.
Dinar and Dirham feqah known as sharia currency or coins syarikah (see a) Muqadimah, Ibn Khaldun). Islamic coins the term is specific to the dinar & dirham only and should not be used for other coins. While other coins are all known as the coin is not syarii (Ibn Khaldun).
The term Alternative Currency or currency options the currency does not apply to the sharia or Islamic coins because the term 'Islamic coins' is specifically for the Dinar & Dirham only and is not an alternative to other currencies is not syarii. The two coins that stand alone with no alternative.
In the history of Islamic coins, never became the legal tender currency. In the practice of the early Muslim community, not only currency used sharia as an intermediary in exchange for payment. Barley, dates and salt are also used as a medium of exchange for payment. Therefore, there is no exclusive rights granted to Islamic coins.
During the reign of Saidina Ummar, the pattern of Islamic currency has been carved with the name of Allah, and some of the verses of the Qur'an. The weight of a dinar currency has been set to equal the current size of 4.25 grams.
Elimination of the currency system of Islam has been much damage to mankind, such as poverty, environmental degradation, production and distribution monopoly. The financial system is now bringing a lot of problems such as unemployment, crime, immoral & moral decline.
Now, the gold dinar was back, and many Muslims and non-Muslims from all over the world call for the gold dinar was restored.
Gold Dinar is a gold-based currency is intended to be used throughout the world particularly in Islamic countries. The term was chosen because it is based on Islamic currency used in the country Madinah al-Munawwarah at the time of the Prophet Muhammad, the dinar.
CURRENCY OF ISLAM
Posted on October 28, 2010 by admin
Gold and Silver is the second most suitable commodities to be used to back currency. Reuse Dinar and Dirham As Currency Islam course will impact the thinking and lifestyle of Muslims in these last days.
Dinar and Dirham feqah known as sharia currency or coins syarikah (see a) Muqadimah, Ibn Khaldun). Islamic coins the term is specific to the dinar & dirham only and should not be used for other coins. While other coins are all known as the coin is not syarii (Ibn Khaldun).
The term Alternative Currency or currency options the currency does not apply to the sharia or Islamic coins because the term 'Islamic coins' is specifically for the Dinar & Dirham only and is not an alternative to other currencies is not syarii. The two coins that stand alone with no alternative.
In the history of Islamic coins, never became the legal tender currency. In the practice of the early Muslim community, not only currency used sharia as an intermediary in exchange for payment. Barley, dates and salt are also used as a medium of exchange for payment. Therefore, there is no exclusive rights granted to Islamic coins.
During the reign of Saidina Ummar, the pattern of Islamic currency has been carved with the name of Allah, and some of the verses of the Qur'an. The weight of a dinar currency has been set to equal the current size of 4.25 grams.
Elimination of the currency system of Islam has been much damage to mankind, such as poverty, environmental degradation, production and distribution monopoly. The financial system is now bringing a lot of problems such as unemployment, crime, immoral & moral decline.
Now, the gold dinar was back, and many Muslims and non-Muslims from all over the world call for the gold dinar was restored.
Gold Dinar is a gold-based currency is intended to be used throughout the world particularly in Islamic countries. The term was chosen because it is based on Islamic currency used in the country Madinah al-Munawwarah at the time of the Prophet Muhammad, the dinar.
Umar Ibrahim Vadillo is advisory Dinar Emas Kelantan
Umar Ibrahim Vadillo is advisory Dinar Emas Kelantan. He is a person who sees the use of gold dinar as a solution to the global economic crisis. He has worked hard to create an economic climate that the gold dinar against a currency that is supposed to be Muslims. In fact, he has lobbied Tun Mahathir after the country's currency crisis in lye in 1997 to switch to using the gold dinar. Argument, the gold dinar currency will not only serve as the main method of payment as there is more than one billion Muslims in this world but the position of a country's economy will be more secure because of the gold dinar is a commodity that has price stability.
On August 18, 1991, he issued a fatwa loudly that paper money is illegal. Fatwa concluded that paper money is a form of debt (a promise that paid by the party out) and therefore can not be used as a means of payment. This is consistent with the definition of Imam Malik which defines money as "no generally accepted komodititi used as a means of exchange." Therefore, people have the freedom to choose any value as a commodity currency and the currency is not forced to value it.
History through carefully, the gold dinar has become the standard currency of the world, for thousands of years, until it was replaced on the dollar bills only in the early 1970's.
Dinar comes from the Latin word denarius, which is the currency used by the Roman Empire made of silver metal. It is used in the year 211 BC in which a silver denarius weight off - about 4.5 grams.
From the word denarius this, there is a variety of other currencies such as the denier (the silver currency of France), Denaro (silver currency Italy), Dinar (Islamic gold currency), Dinero (Spanish silver currency) and Dinheiro (Silver Portuguese currency) .
At the end of the Roman Republic era, the currency of gold denarius was first used to be known as the denarius denarius aureus, which means gold. Since then, growth has been the gold currency change over the period in which the reign of Constantine the Great (306-377 AD) the old currency was exchanged for gold, the currency is lighter, known as Solidus who weighed 4.5 grams.
Solidus gold currency was used until the end of the Byzantine Empire and its use has spread throughout the Arabian Peninsula until the early days of Islam. From the time of starting the development of Islam, the use of currency gold dinar and silver dirham from the Persians have used the currency of any nation when it was in the transaction.
Only in the reign of the Caliph of the Caliphs Saiyidina-3 Ummar al-Khattab (13-23 migration / 633-644 AD), the use of currency dinar and dirham first controlled in terms of style and weight. Under the reign of Caliph Ummar, the pattern of Islamic currency has been carved with the name of Allah and some of the verses of the Qur'an. The weight of this Islamic currency has also been determined that the dinar currency must contain gold weighing 1 mithqal (which weighs 25.4 grams size at present). While the dirham currency, the weight was 2975 grams of silver (current size) in which if the value of the dinar is 7 tukarannya gold dinar is equivalent to 10 dirhams of silver.
The importance of gold dinar clearly recorded in the books of Ibn Khaldun, entitled, "al-Muqaddimah." In the book, posted to the revelation of God Almighty enter the dinar and dirham, and this had a lot to do with the law, such as zakat, marriage, and hudud. That is why in God's revelation s.w.t. has clearly stated that it would remain about the size of the charity and using the dinar and dirham not the other.
Islam emphasizes the pleasure of Allah s.w.t. in each of the commission and the work done for the pleasure of Allah swt will provide benefits to the world and the hereafter. The idea of returning the gold dinar is not a small matter as it is directly or indirectly, involved the question of the social system, economic, political, and, of His blessings.
In fact, the weakness of Muslims marked the end of the world began to use gold dinar. Historically, Islamic rule under the Ottoman Caliphate in Istanbul, Turkey has dihelah with the progress and development. Borrowing money to build a paper from the European countries Turkey has made the debt and paper money system with the laptop has weakened the Caliphate.
Riba is hated God and Prophet This is explained in the Qur'an that says: "And if you do not (leave the rest of offense), then know that Allah and His Messenger will fight you. And if you repent (from taking usury), you shall have your principal, you are not wrong and does not (yet) being persecuted, "(Al Baqarah: 279).
There is no doubt, the world money system based on usury and paper money has led to a lot of damage, such as poverty, environmental degradation, production and distribution monopoly. This system also causes many problems such as unemployment, crime, vice and moral decline. The system is controlled by the banking institutions, democracy and political system is not responsible for contributing to the suffering people of the world.
Ibn Abbas r.a. of Ibn Ishaq and Ibn Basheer Asakir in Kanz al-Ummal heard Allah's Messenger said, which means: "Those who follow the Antichrist is the first 70.000 Jews ... and the release of the Antichrist is a sign of the practice of usury."
Now, the gold dinar was back, and many Muslims and non-Muslims from all over the world call for the gold dinar was restored. In the midst of economic turmoil that hit today, the gold dinar be seen sparkle to restore the financial system more reasonable and steady. Many have been aware of the worst financial system and the international community have begun to seek to return freedom to choose. If democracy is being hailed around the world to be practiced in all matters, why not given the freedom to choose the dinar as the currency?
On August 18, 1991, he issued a fatwa loudly that paper money is illegal. Fatwa concluded that paper money is a form of debt (a promise that paid by the party out) and therefore can not be used as a means of payment. This is consistent with the definition of Imam Malik which defines money as "no generally accepted komodititi used as a means of exchange." Therefore, people have the freedom to choose any value as a commodity currency and the currency is not forced to value it.
History through carefully, the gold dinar has become the standard currency of the world, for thousands of years, until it was replaced on the dollar bills only in the early 1970's.
Dinar comes from the Latin word denarius, which is the currency used by the Roman Empire made of silver metal. It is used in the year 211 BC in which a silver denarius weight off - about 4.5 grams.
From the word denarius this, there is a variety of other currencies such as the denier (the silver currency of France), Denaro (silver currency Italy), Dinar (Islamic gold currency), Dinero (Spanish silver currency) and Dinheiro (Silver Portuguese currency) .
At the end of the Roman Republic era, the currency of gold denarius was first used to be known as the denarius denarius aureus, which means gold. Since then, growth has been the gold currency change over the period in which the reign of Constantine the Great (306-377 AD) the old currency was exchanged for gold, the currency is lighter, known as Solidus who weighed 4.5 grams.
Solidus gold currency was used until the end of the Byzantine Empire and its use has spread throughout the Arabian Peninsula until the early days of Islam. From the time of starting the development of Islam, the use of currency gold dinar and silver dirham from the Persians have used the currency of any nation when it was in the transaction.
Only in the reign of the Caliph of the Caliphs Saiyidina-3 Ummar al-Khattab (13-23 migration / 633-644 AD), the use of currency dinar and dirham first controlled in terms of style and weight. Under the reign of Caliph Ummar, the pattern of Islamic currency has been carved with the name of Allah and some of the verses of the Qur'an. The weight of this Islamic currency has also been determined that the dinar currency must contain gold weighing 1 mithqal (which weighs 25.4 grams size at present). While the dirham currency, the weight was 2975 grams of silver (current size) in which if the value of the dinar is 7 tukarannya gold dinar is equivalent to 10 dirhams of silver.
The importance of gold dinar clearly recorded in the books of Ibn Khaldun, entitled, "al-Muqaddimah." In the book, posted to the revelation of God Almighty enter the dinar and dirham, and this had a lot to do with the law, such as zakat, marriage, and hudud. That is why in God's revelation s.w.t. has clearly stated that it would remain about the size of the charity and using the dinar and dirham not the other.
Islam emphasizes the pleasure of Allah s.w.t. in each of the commission and the work done for the pleasure of Allah swt will provide benefits to the world and the hereafter. The idea of returning the gold dinar is not a small matter as it is directly or indirectly, involved the question of the social system, economic, political, and, of His blessings.
In fact, the weakness of Muslims marked the end of the world began to use gold dinar. Historically, Islamic rule under the Ottoman Caliphate in Istanbul, Turkey has dihelah with the progress and development. Borrowing money to build a paper from the European countries Turkey has made the debt and paper money system with the laptop has weakened the Caliphate.
Riba is hated God and Prophet This is explained in the Qur'an that says: "And if you do not (leave the rest of offense), then know that Allah and His Messenger will fight you. And if you repent (from taking usury), you shall have your principal, you are not wrong and does not (yet) being persecuted, "(Al Baqarah: 279).
There is no doubt, the world money system based on usury and paper money has led to a lot of damage, such as poverty, environmental degradation, production and distribution monopoly. This system also causes many problems such as unemployment, crime, vice and moral decline. The system is controlled by the banking institutions, democracy and political system is not responsible for contributing to the suffering people of the world.
Ibn Abbas r.a. of Ibn Ishaq and Ibn Basheer Asakir in Kanz al-Ummal heard Allah's Messenger said, which means: "Those who follow the Antichrist is the first 70.000 Jews ... and the release of the Antichrist is a sign of the practice of usury."
Now, the gold dinar was back, and many Muslims and non-Muslims from all over the world call for the gold dinar was restored. In the midst of economic turmoil that hit today, the gold dinar be seen sparkle to restore the financial system more reasonable and steady. Many have been aware of the worst financial system and the international community have begun to seek to return freedom to choose. If democracy is being hailed around the world to be practiced in all matters, why not given the freedom to choose the dinar as the currency?
The weakening of Exchange Rate is a Force Majeur
I'm sure nobody would ever have thought that within a period of ten years since the monetary crisis memorakmorandakan national economy, we will experience the same crisis again with different causes. In 1997, Indonesia is considered weak economic fundamentals so that when the crisis hit Southeast Asia, we immediately dropped. The rupiah weakened to the point of the most humiliating history of exchange rate our pride, Rp16000 per U.S. $ 1. Now, when our economic fundamentals "reported" good, it turns out that our economy, too, fall when bankruptcy hit the United States. The value of our currency slumped again to the level Rp12000 per U.S. $ 1. What can I say?
Force Majeur
The government should declare this weakening of the rupiah as force majeure due to such natural disasters, we also can not deny his arrival. Moreover, everyone knows that this is a global crisis where our country is powerless against it.
The contractors of government projects are always paid in the currency of rupiah to the dollar when they spend a lot of Americans who suffered losses from the weakening of the rupiah against the U.S. dollar. Three months ago, the rupiah against the U.S. dollar still in Rp9200 level of per U.S. $ 1. Today, when the rupiah reached Rp12000 per U.S. $ 1, the effect is like a natural disaster. The government contractor would not be able to bear the foreign exchange reached Rp3000's. I am sure many government contractors who experience it.
Government as an employer might say that contractors should have been calculating the risk of exchange rate fluctuations. However, the contractor which calculate cost of goods sold with Rp12000 exchange rate per U.S. $ 1 three months ago? On average, the contractor calculates the estimated foreign exchange amounting to Rp9500 per U.S. $ 1 on the U.S. dollar fluctuated in numbers Rp9200 - Rp9300. Which calculates the estimated exchange rate per U.S. $ 1 Rp10000 I do not think there is any.
Today, many companies do not dare to follow the tender for the procurement of goods (especially IT) by the government. The partner government does not dare to bear the losses due to foreign exchange because no one can guarantee that the exchange rate of rupiah against the U.S. dollar will continue or strengthen. That's when the new tender implemented. What about the tender has been announced or determined the winner in this two-weekly? We all know that the government tendering process starting from the announcement of the winner of the auction until the appointment of more than one month duration. A month ago, no one uses contractors estimates Rp12000 exchange rate per U.S. $ 1. Most likely, the highest estimates used are Rp10000 per U.S. $ 1.
Many government contractors who have a dilemma. At the time it has been set as the winner, they will be included on the blacklist (black list) when to resign. Meanwhile, if still do the job, they will lose big. In my opinion, the government through the Ministry of Finance should issue a policy regarding this. If in 2005 the government had issued a policy of price ekskalasi the face of this global economic catastrophe the government has not issued a similar policy.
When the dollar price range in Rp9200 - Rp9300, calculate the dollar price Rp10000 HPP was going to say distension (mark up) by the IG, BPK and KPK. The reason that no one can guarantee that prices will not increase the dollar will not be accepted by the IG, BPK and KPK. However, if the problem has happened like this, what will be said by the IG, CPC or KPK? Pity her, the government contractor. Currently, many government contractors who are working on jobs in government agencies that loss. Loss, not only declined but profit is completely loss.
The importance of the transaction with the amount in the domestic
Two times of economic crisis in decades should provide lessons for us all about the importance of dealing with the amount in the country. Government through the Ministry of Finance should issue a Regulation of the Minister of Finance regarding the obligation transactions in rupiah in the country. If Permenkeu not strong enough, the President should issue a presidential decree. If not enough, must be regulated in an Act. If a member of the House, I would propose that given the importance of making Rupiah as host in his own country and keep the business climate in the country to keep it running stable.
Force Majeur
The government should declare this weakening of the rupiah as force majeure due to such natural disasters, we also can not deny his arrival. Moreover, everyone knows that this is a global crisis where our country is powerless against it.
The contractors of government projects are always paid in the currency of rupiah to the dollar when they spend a lot of Americans who suffered losses from the weakening of the rupiah against the U.S. dollar. Three months ago, the rupiah against the U.S. dollar still in Rp9200 level of per U.S. $ 1. Today, when the rupiah reached Rp12000 per U.S. $ 1, the effect is like a natural disaster. The government contractor would not be able to bear the foreign exchange reached Rp3000's. I am sure many government contractors who experience it.
Government as an employer might say that contractors should have been calculating the risk of exchange rate fluctuations. However, the contractor which calculate cost of goods sold with Rp12000 exchange rate per U.S. $ 1 three months ago? On average, the contractor calculates the estimated foreign exchange amounting to Rp9500 per U.S. $ 1 on the U.S. dollar fluctuated in numbers Rp9200 - Rp9300. Which calculates the estimated exchange rate per U.S. $ 1 Rp10000 I do not think there is any.
Today, many companies do not dare to follow the tender for the procurement of goods (especially IT) by the government. The partner government does not dare to bear the losses due to foreign exchange because no one can guarantee that the exchange rate of rupiah against the U.S. dollar will continue or strengthen. That's when the new tender implemented. What about the tender has been announced or determined the winner in this two-weekly? We all know that the government tendering process starting from the announcement of the winner of the auction until the appointment of more than one month duration. A month ago, no one uses contractors estimates Rp12000 exchange rate per U.S. $ 1. Most likely, the highest estimates used are Rp10000 per U.S. $ 1.
Many government contractors who have a dilemma. At the time it has been set as the winner, they will be included on the blacklist (black list) when to resign. Meanwhile, if still do the job, they will lose big. In my opinion, the government through the Ministry of Finance should issue a policy regarding this. If in 2005 the government had issued a policy of price ekskalasi the face of this global economic catastrophe the government has not issued a similar policy.
When the dollar price range in Rp9200 - Rp9300, calculate the dollar price Rp10000 HPP was going to say distension (mark up) by the IG, BPK and KPK. The reason that no one can guarantee that prices will not increase the dollar will not be accepted by the IG, BPK and KPK. However, if the problem has happened like this, what will be said by the IG, CPC or KPK? Pity her, the government contractor. Currently, many government contractors who are working on jobs in government agencies that loss. Loss, not only declined but profit is completely loss.
The importance of the transaction with the amount in the domestic
Two times of economic crisis in decades should provide lessons for us all about the importance of dealing with the amount in the country. Government through the Ministry of Finance should issue a Regulation of the Minister of Finance regarding the obligation transactions in rupiah in the country. If Permenkeu not strong enough, the President should issue a presidential decree. If not enough, must be regulated in an Act. If a member of the House, I would propose that given the importance of making Rupiah as host in his own country and keep the business climate in the country to keep it running stable.
Global Financial Crisis 2008 Financial Crisis 1997 Differences With
1997 financial crisis hit most Asian countries. There is also affected by the crisis are: Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Philippines, South Korea. This crisis did not spread to other parts of the world.
This crisis exchange rate in the countries affected is due to make a nation and its foreign debt has fallen into poverty. Industry with imported raw materials went bankrupt. Happy story, the coffee farmers and exporters in Indonesia get nomplok fortune due to the depreciation of rupiah exchange rate.
The global financial crisis started from the United States 2008. Unlike the 1997 financial crisis affecting local 2008 crisis spread to almost all parts of the world. The stock fell. Multinational financial companies go bankrupt. Many companies in the U.S. would make the reduction of employees.
Financial crisis in the U.S., portfolio investors on the stock exchange to attract funding. As a result, the stock market fall, and now all currency exchange rates follow Asia fall. The rupiah exchange rate against the dollar had reached levels Rp12.000 per USD1.
Unfortunately, the collapse of the rupiah exchange rate is not accompanied by increased exports due to major export markets of Indonesia, namely the U.S., is bankrupt. In fact, the current agricultural commodity prices and mining fell. Falling coal prices, coffee prices fell. CPO prices to fall. Crude oil prices fell to a rate of USD60 per barrel-an.
The story above shows how the economy of Indonesia is not independent. In the 1997 crisis, others are not dragged over the world. Now, in 2008, due to the crisis in the United States, we must follow impacted. Therefore, let us move to develop the economic independence of Indonesia.
DOLLARS AND INSTABILITY ECONOMI WORLD
The world economy is increasingly uncertain. Rise and fall of the stock market, petrol and food the world out of control. Many people panicked by the crisis that hit, particularly pelabur2 the loss of millions of dollars in the blink of an eye, and thousands of lost jobs pkerja. Loss of jobs means loss of living.
OIL PRICES
Today is probably the world oil price below 40 USD per barrel. The same oil sold at more than 147 USD per barrel in April. Economic Pakar2 expect oil prices will continue down to 25 USD per barrel. Malaysians are welcome decline in oil that was announced by the government. At the same time there is still demand for the fuel in Malaysia reduced further.
In 2008, the various ups and downs of entry event occurs, like the formerly happy, but now everything is almost all upside.
The fate of rubber tappers
Rising oil prices lead to rising world market prices of rubber, and rubber tappers breath due to this increase, there is a taxi driver to stop driving and facing the rubber trees in order to make a living. What is any of a rubber tappers can collect revenue exceeding RM 1000 per week. It is much more convenient than driving a taxi during the day.
Dear and unfortunate fate of the rubber tappers to my countrymen, when the income earned each month so large rubber sales, there are buying cars, there are a enlargement of a house, there was, and there is. Finally, the present price of rubber dropped, car insurance did not manage to run out again. Saving money is gone, no income cukup2 eat. These plagues and disasters, when do not know about the financial knowledge to liberate themselves from the race of life. Their lives back to the original, hand to mouth, hand to the evening meal in the evening.
BAY ARAB COUNTRIES
When the price of oil reached 147 USD per barrel, luxury car sales declined throughout the world except in the Gulf Negara2. (Saudi Arabia, Emirate, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar). The result of the increase in global oil markets, they have many times more profit. Luxury cars bought seolah2 kanak2 games, with easy to purchase and convert a new car. Ego them in buying the car did not last long, is now a global market of oil plummeted, profits have declined ..
Gulf Negara2 now fill the stomach of oil sales to the global market. Logically, if negara2 is running out of oil, so he went back into poverty. Now, they can mendabik chest pointing ego because oil wells are still flowing, but I am not anti all the people of the Gulf, there is good and aware of the situation, but most of them are arrogant and like mendabik chest. time passed, the oil is decreasing, is certainly a more severe crisis in the future awaiting them.
NATION AND THE WORLD RICE MARKET
Following the increase in world oil demand in April this year, Thai White Rice prices increased by up to 1080 USD per tonne. As a result of the price of rice in Malaysia rose to 37 RM to 10 kg. People panic, the government was also similar to panic. Drastic measures have been taken by the government to provide subsidy of .80 cents per kilo of rice. The first time in history the government had to issue a subsidized rice to the people, if earlier, the subsidies granted in the form of fertilizer to farmers.
Today, Thai White Rice prices have dropped to 550 USD per metric ton. The situation stabilized for the moment, there is no guarantee that the stability hrga can survive forever.
IMPACT OF ECONOMIC CRISIS.
The global economic crisis saw the giant world syarikat2 mengulung down like Lehman Bro. Then followed by the announcement of losses by various companies such as AIG, Air Asia, the latest Honda recall of participation in Formula One.
A total of 250,000 Americans lost their jobs in the private sector. At the same time syarikat2 American motor giant General Motors and Ford asked for help from the White House. The amount requested is not small, but reaches 42 Billion USD. If aid is not given, the more people will lose their jobs.
Deputy Prime Minister of Malaysia, announced that the country will experience a reduction in revenues of 8 Billion RM next year as a result of this crisis, but many consider that this figure is accurate and will not contemplate making further increases.
Conclusion
Today's world, financial distress, it is an external view, however, present problems in the economic theory of truth is practiced. Defects in theory lead to problems in applying the world's population and thus bring honor some of these economic problems.
OIL PRICES
Today is probably the world oil price below 40 USD per barrel. The same oil sold at more than 147 USD per barrel in April. Economic Pakar2 expect oil prices will continue down to 25 USD per barrel. Malaysians are welcome decline in oil that was announced by the government. At the same time there is still demand for the fuel in Malaysia reduced further.
In 2008, the various ups and downs of entry event occurs, like the formerly happy, but now everything is almost all upside.
The fate of rubber tappers
Rising oil prices lead to rising world market prices of rubber, and rubber tappers breath due to this increase, there is a taxi driver to stop driving and facing the rubber trees in order to make a living. What is any of a rubber tappers can collect revenue exceeding RM 1000 per week. It is much more convenient than driving a taxi during the day.
Dear and unfortunate fate of the rubber tappers to my countrymen, when the income earned each month so large rubber sales, there are buying cars, there are a enlargement of a house, there was, and there is. Finally, the present price of rubber dropped, car insurance did not manage to run out again. Saving money is gone, no income cukup2 eat. These plagues and disasters, when do not know about the financial knowledge to liberate themselves from the race of life. Their lives back to the original, hand to mouth, hand to the evening meal in the evening.
BAY ARAB COUNTRIES
When the price of oil reached 147 USD per barrel, luxury car sales declined throughout the world except in the Gulf Negara2. (Saudi Arabia, Emirate, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar). The result of the increase in global oil markets, they have many times more profit. Luxury cars bought seolah2 kanak2 games, with easy to purchase and convert a new car. Ego them in buying the car did not last long, is now a global market of oil plummeted, profits have declined ..
Gulf Negara2 now fill the stomach of oil sales to the global market. Logically, if negara2 is running out of oil, so he went back into poverty. Now, they can mendabik chest pointing ego because oil wells are still flowing, but I am not anti all the people of the Gulf, there is good and aware of the situation, but most of them are arrogant and like mendabik chest. time passed, the oil is decreasing, is certainly a more severe crisis in the future awaiting them.
NATION AND THE WORLD RICE MARKET
Following the increase in world oil demand in April this year, Thai White Rice prices increased by up to 1080 USD per tonne. As a result of the price of rice in Malaysia rose to 37 RM to 10 kg. People panic, the government was also similar to panic. Drastic measures have been taken by the government to provide subsidy of .80 cents per kilo of rice. The first time in history the government had to issue a subsidized rice to the people, if earlier, the subsidies granted in the form of fertilizer to farmers.
Today, Thai White Rice prices have dropped to 550 USD per metric ton. The situation stabilized for the moment, there is no guarantee that the stability hrga can survive forever.
IMPACT OF ECONOMIC CRISIS.
The global economic crisis saw the giant world syarikat2 mengulung down like Lehman Bro. Then followed by the announcement of losses by various companies such as AIG, Air Asia, the latest Honda recall of participation in Formula One.
A total of 250,000 Americans lost their jobs in the private sector. At the same time syarikat2 American motor giant General Motors and Ford asked for help from the White House. The amount requested is not small, but reaches 42 Billion USD. If aid is not given, the more people will lose their jobs.
Deputy Prime Minister of Malaysia, announced that the country will experience a reduction in revenues of 8 Billion RM next year as a result of this crisis, but many consider that this figure is accurate and will not contemplate making further increases.
Conclusion
Today's world, financial distress, it is an external view, however, present problems in the economic theory of truth is practiced. Defects in theory lead to problems in applying the world's population and thus bring honor some of these economic problems.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
